Bitcoin Is Down 50% but Cryptoquant Says the Cycle Top Still Hasn’t Happened

What the Signal Says

Onchain analytics firm Cryptoquant noted that its 365-day PnL Index Signal continues to trend lower, “suggesting the current BTC cycle has yet to reach its peak.” In the firm’s framework, a depressed and falling reading marks the accumulation phase of a cycle rather than its terminal stage (historically the territory where bear markets bottom, not where bull markets die).

The PnL Index blends several of the most watched onchain gauges, including the market value to realized value (MVRV) ratio, net unrealized profit and loss, and the ratio of long-term to short-term holders. Cryptoquant tracks the index against its 365-day moving average, and the relationship between the two defines whether the firm’s cycle indicator reads bullish or bearish.

In fact, the bull-bear cycle indicator flipped green on May 12, its first bullish signal since March 2023. Analysts cautioned at the time that the indicator produced a false positive in 2022, and that a green light alone does not guarantee a durable uptrend.

A Market Torn Between Two Cycle Readings

The bullish interpretation faces an uncomfortable counterargument as bitcoin printed its record high around $126,000 in October 2025 and has since been cut in half, a drawdown that convinced some analysts the cycle top is already in and that the market is working through a conventional post-peak bear phase.

Cryptoquant’s signal implies the opposite, i.e. October’s high was not this cycle’s final word and that the structure resembles a market still building toward its peak. In other words, if the top is behind, rallies from here are exit liquidity; if it is ahead, the current zone is accumulation.

Some traders have already bet on the latter, with one whale buying $98.9 million in bitcoin at the June 5 low of $59,734 and netting a $3.5 million profit within two days as the market bounced. BTC has since held above $60,000, changing hands near $62,550 at the time of writing.

That being said, onchain cycle signals are probabilistic, not prophetic, as evidenced by the 2022 false green flip. Weak or falling PnL readings alone do not guarantee a reversal; rather, they describe holder profitability, not future demand. Lastly, macro forces from tariff headlines to Federal Reserve policy alone have repeatedly overridden onchain structure this year.